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Big 12 Preview: Two Texas schools are primed to challenge Oklahoma for the title

Is the Big 12 Oklahoma’s to lose? Fresh of a College Football Playoff appearance with a loaded offense returning, Oklahoma is the favorite in the conference.

But we think others are close behind, including a longtime rival who beat Oklahoma in 2015.

Both of OU’s main challengers are breaking in new quarterbacks but that shouldn’t be an issue. In the conference of offense, we’re not expecting too many games with a final scoreline of 23-20.

Offensive Player of the Year: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Defensive Player of the Year: Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas

Newcomer of the Year: Kenny Hill, TCU

Teams listed in predicted order of finish.

Baker Mayfield (Getty Images)
Baker Mayfield (Getty Images)

Oklahoma
2015 record: 11-2
2015 finish: 1st

Overview: There’s a lot to like about a team that returns a Heisman-candidate quarterback and two running backs capable of rushing for over 1,000 yards this season. QB Baker Mayfield and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are the Sooners’ strongest attributes. But you knew that already.

So we’ll focus on the defense. The Sooners must replace five starters on defense; four of those being LBs Dominique Alexander, Eric Striker, Frank Shannon and DE Charles Tapper. The quartet combined for over 250 tackles and 18 sacks. That’s a lot of production to replace and the pass-rush production will fall on DEs Charles Walker (6 sacks in 2015) and Ogbonnia Okornkwu (2). If OU can generate a consistent pass rush from its front four, it’ll free a linebacking corps with three new starters of a lot of blitzing responsibilities.

And that’s even better news for a secondary that returns three starters. With Jordan Thomas locking down one side of the field, OU should have the best pass defense in the Big 12.

Best-case scenario: The defense holds up against the run and replacing the big names isn’t a big deal while either WR Dede Westbrook or WR Geno Lewis steps up as a No. 1 target in the passing game to replace Sterling Shepard. An undefeated regular season is in the cards.

Worst-case scenario: Here’s where we note that OU coach Bob Stoops’ teams haven’t been very good at living up to great preseason expectations. The worst-case scenario is certainly a failure to do so.

If OU loses at home to a reloaded Ohio State team on Sep. 17, expect some panic from Norman. One loss in the Big 12 can be absorbed with a 3-0 record in nonconference play. But if OU loses to OSU, the margin for error in the conference regarding the College Football Playoff disappears. And while an undefeated conference season is certainly possible, we’re not betting on it.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 8-1

KaVontae Turpin (Getty Images)
KaVontae Turpin (Getty Images)

TCU
2015 record: 11-2
2015 finish: 2nd

Overview: Two Big 12 teams are likely to start quarterbacks who weren’t eligible to play in 2015. TCU is one of them, as we’re guessing Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill becomes the team’s starter over Foster Sawyer, who backed up Trevone Boykin in 2015.

Despite the absence of Boykin, one of the best quarterbacks in college football over the past two seasons, and seven other offensive starters from last year we think TCU has a great shot at nearing the top of the conference. Why? Injuries. If it felt like every TCU player was hurt at one point or another throughout 2015, your brain is not exaggerating by much.

The offense is destined to take a step back, but we don’t think it’ll be a big one. WRs KaVontae Turpin and Deante Gray return to give Hill (or Sawyer) two reliable weapons and RBs Kyle Hicks and Trevorris Johnson should keep the running game going.

With eight starters returning, the defense will be much better than it was in 2015. Six of the team’s seven leading tacklers return including LB Travin Howard.

Best-case scenario: The offense doesn’t lose anything and Turpin or Gray become the uber-threat WR Josh Doctson was last year. The defense resembles coach Gary Patterson’s TCU defenses of recent years and road games vs. Texas and Baylor aren’t as intimidating as they could be.

Worst-case scenario: The losses of Boykin and Doctson are felt and the Horned Frogs are drubbed at home vs. Arkansas. The loss to the 5th best team (at best?) in the SEC sets the stage for a rough season that includes losses to both Oklahoma schools and the aforementioned Longhorns and Bears.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-2

Malik Jefferson (Getty Images)
Malik Jefferson (Getty Images)

Texas
2015 record: 5-7
2015 finish: 5th

Overview: Here’s the other team that could have an entirely new starting quarterback. Spoiler alert: We’re predicting Texas to have the same conference record as TCU.

Freshman Shane Buechele could win the starting job over Tyrone Swoopes and Jarrod Heard, who has been practicing at wide receiver this preseason. Heard’s position switch likely takes him out of the running for the full-time QB gig, so the race is down to Buechele. No matter if it’s the true freshman or Swoopes, we like the Texas offense to be much better in 2016.

It’s entirely possible that we’re being too optimistic about the offense. But new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert has coached wide open offenses at Bowling Green and Tulsa the past two seasons. The high-tempo spread should suit whomever starts at quarterback and also simplify the reads from the position. Add in a player like Heard who could get 10-15 touches a game from a variety of positions along with leading rusher D’Onta Freeman and leading receiver John Burt and it’s easy to see a big leap from the UT offense.

The defense returns eight starters and could surpass the 37 sacks it accumulated in 2015. But we’re not as concerned with the pass rush as we are with the rush defense. Texas allowed eight opponents to rush for over 200 yards in 2015. That number needs to be cut in half in 2016.

Best-case scenario: The season opens with a home win against a highly-touted Notre Dame team as Texas’ QB conundrum bests the Irish’s. A road win vs. Cal puts UT at 3-0 heading into the conference schedule that begins with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Worst-case scenario: Notre Dame does what it did to Texas in 2015 and Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb lights up the Longhorns in Week 3. If that happens, Texas is staring down the barrel of a 1-4 start and a whole bunch of questions about coach Charlie Strong’s status.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-2

Seth Russell (Getty Images)
Seth Russell (Getty Images)

Baylor
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 4th

Overview: Actual football will be a welcome respite for Baylor after the sexual assault scandal that has plagued the program over the past few months. But that scandal is impossible to avoid, even if you’re at McLane Stadium and unable to hear any mentions of it on a television broadcast.

Baylor interim coach Jim Grobe will be dealing with a severe lack of depth thanks to the allegations. The Bears lost half of the recruiting class Art Briles signed in February 2016 along with other players who have either left the program or been dismissed. Many of those recruits would have seen some playing time in 2016 while dismissed running back Devin Chafin ran for 585 yards and nine touchdowns last year.

That paragraph doesn’t even address the quarterback situation, which looks really great up front with Seth Russell’s return. After him, however, it’s a bit of a cluster. Both Chris Johnson (Houston) and Jarrett Stidham (TBD), quarterbacks who started in Russell’s absence in 2015, are no longer members of the program. If Russell goes down, will Baylor have to adapt to a single-wing type offense again to survive?

Best-case scenario: Russell, along with many key contributors, stays healthy for the entire season. Baylor has enough top talent on the roster to make a run at the Big 12.

Worst-case scenario: Injuries are hard to avoid over the course of a season and Baylor doesn’t seem equipped to survive an injury outbreak like the one that hit TCU in 2015.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-4

Mason Rudolph (Getty Images)
Mason Rudolph (Getty Images)

Oklahoma State
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 2nd

Overview: While the loss of Stidham is a big question mark for Baylor, Oklahoma State is also needing to replace its backup quarterback. It’s a bigger hole to fill than you’d think.

Starting quarterback Mason Rudolph may be the second-best quarterback in the Big 12 in 2016 and he has a stacked supporting cast around him. The only player missing from the 2015 OSU offense is wide receiver David Glidden. WR James Washington, who averaged 20.5 yards per catch last season, returns to form the league’s best deep-ball combination with Rudolph and Marcell Ateman, who had 17 yards a catch, is back as well.

The passing game is of little concern. The rushing game, meanwhile, is a big question mark. And that’s where the absence of QB JW Walsh comes in. Walsh ran for 13 touchdowns in 2015 and was one of just two OSU players to run for over four yards a carry. His presence in the red zone made teams defend both the run and pass. Can RBs Chris Carson and Raymond Taylor replace that production?

Defensively, the biggest question is the pass rush. The Cowboys return seven starters, though DE Emmanuel Ogbah (13 sacks) and DE Jimmy Bean (5.5) are gone. If DT Vincent Taylor approaches double-digits in sacks and commands regular double teams, LBs Jordan Burton and Chad Whitener should be free to roam the field.

Best-case scenario: OSU begins the season 10-0 entering the final two games of the season at TCU and at Oklahoma. The schedule is manageable with home games against Pitt, Texas and West Virginia.

Worst-case scenario: The run game can’t replace the threat Walsh provided and defenses focus in on Rudolph and Washington. The imbalance between the rush and the pass turns too many potential TDs into field goals and OSU struggles to make a bowl game.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-4

Patrick Mahomes (Getty Images)
Patrick Mahomes (Getty Images)

Texas Tech
2015 record: 7-6
2015 finish: 6th

Overview: The offense is going to keep humming along, but the way Texas Tech replaces two important players will determine just how great it is.

Gone are wide receiver Jakeem Grant and running back De’Andre Washington. Grant had 90 catches for 1,268 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2015 while Washington ran for 1,492 yards and 14 scores and added nearly 400 yards through the passing game.

Washington will likely prove harder to replace than Grant. Tech returns its second, third and fourth-leading receivers from a year ago, so quarterback Patrick Mahomes will have plenty of options to work with in the passing game. But Mahomes was second on the team in rushing in 2015 with 456 yards. RB Justin Stockton, the team’s third-leading rusher, is the bellcow back entering the 2016 season and needs to approach 1,000 yards to keep all of offensive pressure off Mahomes.

And, as always, the limiting factor in Texas Tech’s success will be the team’s defense. The Red Raiders return six starters, though four of the top six tacklers from a year ago are gone and No. 1 cornerback Nigel Bethel has transferred. Basic competence could go a long way to a successful season in Lubbock.

Best-case scenario: The defense is decent and the Red Raiders upset Arizona State on the road in Week 2. If that happens, Tech should be 6-0 heading into an Oct. 22 matchup vs. Oklahoma.

Worst-case scenario: The defense is even worse than 2015, when it gave up 60+ points three times. Tech can win a lot of 45-41 football games. Asking the offense to win games 55-52 is way too bold.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-5

Skyler Howard (Getty Images)
Skyler Howard (Getty Images)

West Virginia
2015 record: 8-5
2015 finish: 7th

Overview: West Virginia deals with a significant injury for a key contributor to the secondary for the second season in a row.

Safety Karl Joseph injured his knee after four games in 2015 and missed the rest of the season. This year, the knee injury hit before the season began as the team announced earlier in August that S Dravon Askew-Henry would miss the season with a torn ACL. Askew-Henry was the Mountaineers’ leading returning tackler (59).

While Askew-Henry needs to be replaced in the secondary, someone needs to step up and replace the production from RB Wendell Smallwood, who rushed for 1,519 yards and nine touchdowns in 2015. The most likely candidate is Rushel Shell, who had 708 yards rushing and eight scores last season, though he averaged two fewer yards per carry than Smallwood. QB Skyler Howard has receivers Dalkiel Shorts and Shelton Gibson back for 2016.

Best-case scenario: A defense now breaking in eight new starters gels quickly and WVU overpowers Mizzou in Week 1. TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor all come to Morgantown and it’s not too crazy to think WVU could steal a game or two from those three.

Worst-case scenario: The Mountaineers start the season 1-2 with losses to the Tigers and BYU. That sets up for a rough conference slate as games vs. Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Texas are all on the road.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 4-5

Jesse Ertz (Getty Images)
Jesse Ertz (Getty Images)

Kansas State
2015 record: 6-7
2015 finish: 8th

Overview: Jesse Ertz gets a second chance to be Kansas State’s starting QB in 2016. Ertz was injured in the first game of the season in 2015 and missed the rest of the season. Joe Hubener stepped in to take his place and will back up Ertz to begin the season once again.

RBs Charles Jones and Justin Silmon return as well. Neither back cracked the 700-yard mark and Kansas State’s offense would be well-served to have a 1,000 yard rusher to count on. Jones, who had 696 yards in 2015, is the most likely candidate. A weapon to replace Tyler Lockett in the passing game would be nice too. With Lockett in the NFL in 2015, Deante Burton was KSU’s leading receiver with 510 passing yards. He’s back, and perhaps a full season with Ertz will improve his numbers.

K-State’s five leading tacklers are back from 2015, so expect a lot of the same Bill Snyder Wizard-ball formula for success. The defense should do well limiting teams in the red zone and turning the field position battle in the offense’s favor. But does KSU have enough offense to keep up with the Big 12 and move to the top half of the conference?

Best-case scenario: Despite being outgained by opponents, Kansas State’s solid special teams and defense means a top-five finish in the conference. Ertz also surprises as an efficient, if not spectacular, quarterback.

Worst-case scenario: The Wildcats get manhandled by Stanford to start the season. Two gimme games follow the trip to Palo Alto, but the conference schedule is nasty to start with West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. An 0-3 stretch to start conference play would be a bad omen.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-6

Mike Warren (Getty Images)
Mike Warren (Getty Images)

Iowa State
2015 record: 3-9
2015 finish: 9th

Overview: What are the expectations in Matt Campbell’s first season? The former Toledo coach inherits a roster with eight returning starters on defense. While ISU won’t have the most athletic bunch chasing after the high-flying offenses in the Big 12, the Cyclones should play defense reasonably well enough to be competitive, especially in home games against Kansas State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.

But as we’ve established above, Tech and WVU can pile on the points. Is ISU’s offense capable of hanging with a team that can put up 30 points on an off day? Running back Mike Warren, who ran for over 1,300 yards in 2015, returns. So does Joel Lanning, who split time with Sam Richardson at quarterback in 2015, and leading receiver Allen Lazard.

But will Warren have holes to run through and will Lanning have time to throw? Iowa State will have four new starting offensive linemen and the new unit will be tested early with games against Iowa and TCU in Weeks 2 and 3.

Best-case scenario: A few home wins plus a win at Kansas is enough to get to 6-6 and a bowl game.

Worst-case scenario: A loss to Kansas means Iowa State is staring at the cellar.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-7

Fish Smithson (Getty Images)
Fish Smithson (Getty Images)

Kansas
2015 record: 0-12
2015 finish: 10th

Overview: Kansas is going to be better in 2016. Granted, the Jayhawks really couldn’t be much worse, but with eight starters returning on each side of the ball, Kansas has the capability of putting a reasonable scare into a team or two in the Big 12.

But will the Jayhawks pull off a win? Quarterbacks Ryan Willis and Montell Cozart return; Willis got the bulk of the playing time in 2015 as a true freshman. Better quarterback play is almost guaranteed, though we’re not expecting KU to field one of the top offenses in the conference.

Of the eight returning starters on defense, five were the Jayhawks’ leading tacklers in 2015, including safety Fish Smithson (a great name, don’t you think?). Kansas gave up 40+ points in eight of 12 games in 2015. Cutting that number in half may be too much to ask, but two or three fewer impossible games for the offense is a big step in the right direction.

Best-case scenario: Win a game. Or two. Or maybe even three.

Worst-case scenario: Another winless season and one where there aren’t any signs of progress from the futility shown over recent seasons.

Predicted 2016 conference record: 0-9

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Nick Bromberg

is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!