Booms and Busts: Jay Ajayi goes bonkers (again)

The Dolphins tried to move away from Jay Ajayi for several months. The team pushed hard for free agent C.J. Anderson during the shopping season; drafted third-round back Kenyan Drake; and eventually settled on Arian Foster as a look-see veteran signee. Journeyman Isaiah Pead was around for a while. Heck, Ajayi didn’t even travel with the team for Week 1’s opener at Seattle.

Player evaluation is hard, man. Kick all those other names to the curb. Ajayi is here to stay, and he’s here to entertain us. There’s a short list of fantasy backs we can trust, with Ajayi now on that clipboard.

Ajayi’s 204-yard breakout in Week 6 was treated with heavy fantasy skepticism — no one wants to be the sucker, the lemming that buys into a mediocre player off a fluke game. Alas, Ajayi was even better in Sunday’s 28-25 victory over Buffalo. Ajayi rumbled for 214 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries, a healthy 7.6 yards per clip, as the Dolphins upset the Bills.

It wasn’t a case of Ajayi misleadingly padding his stats with a long run or two; he had 10 carries of nine yards or more. This is the way you want your back to have success — jab, jab, jab, then the occasional uppercut.

Those 200-yard rushing games are rarities in the NFL, and it’s especially rare to see a player do it in back-to-back weeks. Ajayi’s 200-yard rushing double is just the fifth in league history since the merger, and you’ll recognize the other names on this list:

— Ricky Williams, 2002
— Earl Campbell, 1980
— O.J. Simpson, 1976
— O.J. Simpson, 1973

Campbell and Simpson are Hall of Famers, of course, and Williams was a damn good player. If you blinked and reminisced for a moment Sunday, you could see a little bit of Williams in Ajayi — a powerful Miami back tearing through the tackles, dreadlocks bouncing, a little bit of attitude and joy in every carry. Heck, I had no personal stake in the story — zero Ajayi shares — but I couldn’t help but get caught up in the excitement. A running back on a tear captures your attention, gets the blood pumping.

Ajayi owners will have to cool down for a moment — the Dolphins are one of six teams resting in Week 8. And Ajayi figures to get a significant test in Week 9, against the outstanding Jets rushing defense. Nonetheless, Circle of Trust privileges clearly belong to Ajayi now. Signature significance applies. Anyone who explodes for two games in a row like this — and puts up the tape Ajayi just did — sure looks legitimate to me.

— Everyone who started LeSean McCoy deserves to lose — including the Bills

While Ajayi was turfing the Bills, Buffalo’s backfield was a mess on the other side. For reasons only Rex Ryan understands, Buffalo insisted on having McCoy active for this game, despite a balky hamstring. McCoy stumbled to 11 yards on eight carries before aggravating the injury; his longest run was four yards. Meanwhile, a very hale Mike Gillislee (5-20) was largely ignored.

To put fantasy owners on further tilt, it was retread Reggie Bush who picked up a one-yard touchdown and a two-point conversion catch in the final minute, when Buffalo tacked on eight garbage-time points. Including the conversion attempt, Bush had just three touches in the game.

Buffalo has a showdown with the Patriots in Week 8. The prudent move would have been to rest McCoy’s hamstring in this game, take its chances with Gillislee, and have the bell cow closer to 100 percent for the most important game left on the schedule. But I’m not going to look for logic underneath the Ryan sweater vest. Stupid is as stupid does.

— Use any back against the Niners, repeat until rich

Look, nothing against Jacquizz Rodgers and Peyton Barber. They’re NFL running backs. They’re supposed to do something when called upon. But Rodgers and Barber aren’t nearly as good as they looked at San Francisco on Sunday.

Rodgers collected 154 yards on 26 carries, and Barber added 12 totes for 84 yards (including a 44-yard touchdown in garbage time) as the Bucs rolled past the hapless Niners, 34-17. The setup in San Francisco is just about perfect for opposing backfields — the Niners defense can’t stop the run at all (it also struggles in pass defense), and the San Francisco offense plays at a fast and frenetic pace, further helping the opponent.

We can’t pick on the Niners defense next week — the pesky bye comes calling. After that, here’s the hit list: New Orleans, Arizona, New England, Miami. Lots of interesting backs in that mix. Get your popcorn ready.

— Antonio Gates isn’t yielding to Hunter Henry, yet

Full disclosure, I thought the Chargers might be ready to pass the baton; out with the old, in with the new. I was pro-Henry this week and certainly fading Gates. The latter move worked out fine — Gates had just five catches for 38 yards on a whopping 10 targets at Atlanta, with some drops in the mix — but Henry was held to one catch for 16 yards on three targets, a total washout.

Henry narrowly missed a touchdown down the right flank in the third period, and wasn’t moving well after that play. I’m not sure how much he was able to play after that; I’ll be paying close attention to the snap counts and the film from this game. It was encouraging to see San Diego finally catch a break, as it made the endgame plays in a 33-30, overtime victory. Good on you, Philip Rivers (371 passing yards).

Melvin Gordon? You know the story there, same as it ever was. Although Gordon was held to 3.1 yards per carry again — about what we’ve come to expect — he punched in two short touchdowns, and added 6-53-1 through the air. Good work if you can get it. I’d still put him on the market and try to fish out an overpayment, but those who are clinging to a heavy workload and a flurry of touchdown opportunity, I get where you’d coming from.

— Landry Jones is okay in emergency start

First things first — no one is going to throw a parade for the Pittsburgh offense, on the heels of a 27-16 loss to New England. One touchdown is rarely going to be enough to beat the Patriots, and Jones averaged just six yards per pass attempt (29-for-47, 281 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 76.6 rating).

That said, fantasy owners were primarily concerned with what Jones’s start would mean to the elite players on the Pittsburgh offense. As it turned out, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown were just fine — not what we’d normally see, but productive enough for seasonal owners. Bell collected 149 total yards on 31 touches, while Brown had a 7-106-0 line on 11 targets.

Yes, anyone with Pittsburgh shares obviously wants to see Ben Roethlisberger back sooner, rather than later. The Week 8 bye comes in handy here. But if Jones is forced to play, we’ll cobble through. Bell and Brown aren’t going to be stopped by many defenses. And Jones, with just 103 pro passes to his name, could easily improve as he acquires experience.

— Old folks can still be productive

Much like Melvin Gordon, Frank Gore and Matt Forte weren’t posting a snappy YPCs in their busy Week 7 afternoons. But the two 30-something backs are a long way from the fantasy pasture. Gore’s 22 touches went for 83 yards and a touchdown at Tennessee, while Forte handled the ball 34 times against the Ravens, good for 154 yards and two scores.

Perhaps most importantly to Gore and Forte, no one is pushing them in their respective backfields. Bilal Powell was held to four carries (and no catches) in the swamps of Jersey, while Robert Turbin had just three touches in the Indianapolis win. Opportunity once again rules the day.

If I had to pick one of these backs, Gore’s consistency earns the check mark. I also don’t trust the Jets offense, so long as I can’t trust the quarterback play. But it’s reasonable to think both of these veterans are going to outproduce their cost from draft season.