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Brad vs. the Book: Fade or follow Arizona in rematch with UCLA?

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday’s selections below:

Florida (23-5) at Kentucky (23-5)

When the SEC behemoths squared off earlier this month in Gainesville Florida busted out the paddle and spanked Kentucky 88-66. At that time, however, Gators center John Egbunu sported a healthy knee. One torn ACL later and with revenge and a regular season title on the mind for Big Blue Nation, a different scenario may play out.

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Florida has badgered opponents defensively in conference. It’s forced turnovers on 21.2 percent of opponent possessions and surrendered a mere 0.92 points per possession. Equally deadly on the opposite end, particularly from distance (37.8 3PT%), the Gators are chomping. Even sans Egbunu and with leading scorer Canyon Barry severely limited by an ankle injury, they roasted South Carolina earlier in the week. KeyVaughn Allen, Devin Robinson and Chris Chiozza rose to the occasion.

Conversely, Kentucky hasn’t exactly impressed. Yes, the ‘Cats are riding the crest of a five-game winning streak, but on offense they’ve slumbered through multiple halves. The first stanza of the Missouri game was a prime example. In their past four contests, they’ve averaged an unappealing 1.05 points per possession. Specifically, Malik Monk is two-for-his-last-10 from three. If not for their unyielding defense, they would be tumbling in the ranks.

The visitors may be bruised, but their toughness and resolve should keep the rematch competitive.

Smart money says throw a few greenbacks on the Gators.

Fearless Forecast: Kentucky 79 Florida (+4) 76

UCLA (25-3) at Arizona (25-3)

LaVar Ball is that Little League father who relentlessly heckled his kid for under-performing. Though his “Lonzo is better than Steph Curry” claim is arrogant nonsense, he, in a way, has a point. His son is a very special player.

The Lonzo-led Bruins’ efficiency is equal to that of a fast food drive thru. Tops in the nation averaging 1.25 points per possession, they shoot over 41 percent outside and 60-plus percent inside the arc. T.J. Leaf and Thomas Welsh, at 6-foot-10 and 7-feet respectively, are uniquely lethal from mid-range. Allow them to square up along the peripheral and it’s two points seemingly 90 percent of the time. Couple that with UCLA’s suddenly respectable defense (0.97 points per possession allowed last five) and it’s starting to check all the boxes.

On the other end, Arizona has suffered just one loss since early December. Thanks to its staunch defense, it has allowed a lowly 31.3 percent from beyond the arc and 0.99 points per possession. When attacking, the Wildcats are productive from downtown (40.0 3PT%) and twist daggers at the free throw line. Having Allonzo Trier on the floor has greatly enhanced their scoring prowess.

Arizona curb-stomped the Bruins 96-85 at Pauley back in late January, Trier’s first game back from a prolonged hiatus. In that contest, it dominated the paint and piled up 1.31 points per possession. This time around, in Tucson, expect more of the same. Dusan Ristic, Chance Commanche and Finnish wunderkind Lauri Markkanen are simply too difficult for UCLA to neutralize.

Fearless Forecast: Arizona (-3) 87 UCLA 81

Baylor (23-5) at Iowa St. (18-9)

What happened to Baylor? Worshiped by college basketball enthusiasts for a large chunk of the season, it has fallen on tough times. On the wrong side in four of their last seven, the once nearly invincible Bears, who showcased an obscene profile days ago, are entering hibernation, raising questions about their NCAA tournament longevity.

Despite its struggles, Baylor is still one of the more brutish interior teams in the country. Jo Lual-Acuil, Terry Maston and Jonathan Motely, who plays with the energy of a ticked off grizzly, attack the rim, generate plentiful second-chance opportunities and body up defensively. Their dynamite execution is why the Bears rank top-10 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and defensive efficiency. Turnovers, however, have too often been a bugaboo.

Flip side, Iowa St. is Baylor’s antithesis. The Cyclones are disadvantaged on the glass, but, due in large part to Monte Morris’ handles, rarely turn the ball over and are spectacular from three (39.1 3PT%). They fell by two earlier this season in Waco. But recall in that near upset they overcame a sizable rebounding disparity (28-to-47) by knocking down 10 treys while posting a 16:5 assist-to-turnover split.

Legend tells us Hilton Coliseum is a magical place where giants fall. Considering Baylor’s recent troubles, particularly defending the arc (8.9 threes allowed last seven), bank on Iowa St. to wave the wand.

Fearless Forecast: Iowa St. (-2.5) 70 Baylor 67

Other Leans: Villanova (-10), Providence (-2.5), Vandy (-8), Indiana (-4), Southern Illinois (+1), North Carolina (-7.5), Tennessee (+6.5), Rhode Island (-2.5), Oklahoma St. (-6), Purdue (-1), St. Mary’s (-15.5), Bucknell (-11.5)

Parlay Play: Arizona (-3), Purdue (-1), Oklahoma St. (-6)

Year to date (From Twitter): 210-200-4 ATS

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