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Closing Time: Melvin Upton reports to Toronto, sans fantasy value

Melvin Upton's fantasy value, going going gone (AP)
Melvin Upton's fantasy value, going going gone (AP)

Change has been the constant in Melvin Upton’s professional life. Team changes. Swing changes. Name changes. And as we approach the dog days of August, change is in the air again.

Upton was shipped to the Blue Jays on Tuesday, in a curious giveaway trade. The Padres picked up Hansel Rodriguez, a largely-unknown 19-year-old pitching prospect in rookie ball. San Diego will also eat most of the remaining money on Upton’s contract, which runs through 2017.

Upton’s given us a glorious comeback season for fantasy purposes, 16 homers and 20 steals through 93 games. The .255 average isn’t great, but he’s nonetheless graded out as the No. 26 outfielder in 5×5 value, playable in any format.

But how much are the Jays going to use Upton? Michael Saunders, Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista are set in the outfield at the moment. And if Toronto clicks through the Upton splits, they’ll notice he’s a .903 OPS man against lefties but merely a .687 stick against right-handers.

I’m also figuring he’ll run less for the Blue Jays, a power-driven team. In San Diego, you could basically run anytime you wanted.

Upton didn’t start Tuesday game — against a righty — but he is in line to start Wednesday against another right-hander. Sometimes playing-time situations work themselves out — hot players mark their territory, players get hurt, that sort of thing.

I have a couple of Upton shares where I feel obligated to hold for a little bit, see what happens. But I can’t shake the regret that I didn’t try to trade Upton a few weeks back, when (maybe) there might have been a good market.

Then again, if the Padres couldn’t get more than this, maybe fantasy owners never could, either.

• Variance is the name of the game with pitchers, but that goes into overdrive when we’re talking about a knuckleball. Almost no one understands that pitch, and we can’t really pinpoint why knucklers go good and go bad for extended periods of time.

Steven Wright’s Regression Tour hit another jagged edge Tuesday, as the Tigers rocked him for eight runs. Wright’s been throwing batting practice for six starts now: 34.1 IP, 40 H, 24 ER, 11 BB, 29 K. It hashes out to a 6.29 ERA. Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.

The normal stuff we look at with a scuffling pitcher will be of little to no help with a knuckleballer. When the flutterball is working, parks, opponents hardly matter. When the pitch isn’t darting, any hitter, opponent or venue looks intimidating. Of course, Wright doesn’t get any baseline help from Fenway Park or the AL East.

I need pitchers and innings in the Yahoo Friend & Family League, but I nonetheless dropped Wright — after a fun run — last week. I want safer picks with my bottom-rotation guys, my streamers, my short-term contracts. Wright’s volatility and downside was no longer worth it to me. If you’re staying the course, he’s on the road for the Angels and Dodgers.

• Dusty Baker is usually patient with veteran players, often to a fault, but he might at a breaking point with struggling closer Jonathan Papelbon. The Nationals watched Papelbon blow another save Tuesday, his second misstep in three days. The ERA is up to 4.18, the WHIP 1.42. Papelbon used to be a mid-90s guy with the heater, but he’s down to 90.9 mph this year.

The Nats have a few options if they decide Papelbon needs a rest. The trade market is open, though relief pitchers could be costly in this market (the Yankees hauled a ton for Aroldis Chapman). Shawn Kelley was capable as a closing stand-in earlier in the year (3.11 ERA, 1.01 WHIP); he’s also unowned in 84 percent of Yahoo leagues. Place your bets.

Tyler Skaggs was a hot prospect a few years ago before needing an elbow replacement, and maybe he’s ready to contribute to the Angels now. Here’s the lowdown: Skaggs was sharp during a three-level tune-up in the minors (nine starts, 12.1 K/9, 1.60 ERA), and his first MLB start was terrific, too. Skaggs threw seven bagels at the Royals on Tuesday, walking one, striking out five.

The Angels are buried in the pennant race, so Skaggs probably has an early shutdown coming. But let’s check him out between now and bubble-wrap day. He hosts Boston on the weekend, then heads to Seattle next week. You can add him in three-quarters of Yahoo leagues.