Group of Five and Independents Preview: Will Houston make it to an NY6 bowl again?

We conclude our conference preview series with a look at the teams in Group of Five conferences as well as those teams who play without a conference.

Houston emerged in 2015 as the clear choice to represent the non-Power Five conference teams in the New Year’s Six Bowls. Will the choice be as clear-cut this year? The Cougars are certainly starting the season with a good reputation; don’t discount preseason rankings at the end of the season.

Boise State could challenge for the Group of Five spot too, assuming a key defensive position is addressed adequately during the season. And don’t sleep on San Diego State, either.

Here’s how we see the Group of Five conferences shaking out (as well as a breakdown of the four independent teams) in predicted conference standings that are guaranteed to be incorrect by the end of the season.

INDEPENDENTS

Army – 2016 could be Army’s best chance in a long time to snap its losing streak to Navy. The Black Knights return 16 starters, including nine on defense and the team’s seven leading tacklers from 2015. Running backs Aaron Kemper and Ahmad Bradshaw are back too, along with quarterback Chris Carter, who was the team’s second-leading passer in 2015 when he threw 21 passes. Long live the option. With games against multiple Sun Belt teams, it’s feasible that Navy game could also be for a 6-6 season as well.

BYU – If QB Taysom Hill misses significant time for a third-straight season with an injury, BYU fans can take solace in knowing that backup Tanner Mangum is ready to step in and succeed. Running back Jamaal Williams is back too after taking a redshirt in 2015 because of personal reasons. The biggest questions for BYU may be on defense, where the scheme will change under new head coach Kalani Sitake. The pass rush will also need to replace Bronson Kaufusi, who led the team with 11 sacks in 2015.

Massachussetts – Welcome to the land of no conference, UMass. 2016 is the first year the Minutemen are without a conference following a departure from the MAC. The schedule sure looks like a mashup too. UMass visits both Florida and South Carolina, hosts Mississippi State and ends the season with trips to BYU and Hawaii. Andrew Ford replaces Blake Frohnapfel at quarterback while the team’s leading returning receiver is Shakur Nesmith, who had just 15 catches in 2015. It could be a rough season.

Notre Dame – How long with the Irish’s two-quarterback experiment last? Both DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire are set to see playing time after the success they each had in 2015. Kizer, as you may remember, replaced Zaire after he suffered a season-ending injury. The quarterback on the field will need to find a new No. 1 target with the departure of WR Will Fuller to the NFL and will also have the services of Tarean Folston, who had just three carries in 2015 before suffering a knee injury. Notre Dame should be good, but a tough schedule with Texas, Michigan State, Stanford, Miami, Virginia Tech and USC lowers the Irish’s ceiling.

AAC

East
1. Cincinnati
2. Temple
3. South Florida
4. East Carolina
5. Connecticut
6. Central Florida

Cincy opens the season with Hayden Moore at quarterback and not senior Gunner Kiel. Moore played well in relief of Kiel in 2015 (remember his record setting performance against Memphis?), though we have a feeling you’ll see Kiel at some point this season. Temple returns QB PJ Walker and RB Jahad Thomas and also gets Cincinnati and South Florida at home.

All of USF’s key skill position players are back on offense, but the ground-based offense will need to replace three starters on the offensive line. UConn has all but its left tackle back on offense from 2015. Don’t expect the Huskies to suddenly become explosive, but the offense shouldn’t be as brutal to watch in 2016.

Oh, UCF simply wants to win a game.

WEST
1. Houston
2. Navy
3. Memphis
4. SMU
5. Tulsa
6. Tulane

How high can Houston go? With the departure of Memphis QB Paxton Lynch to the NFL and Navy having to replace 10 offensive starters including quarterback Keenan Reynolds, the West (and the AAC) is clearly Houston’s. The Cougars need to replace three offensive linemen, however, and also hope that transfer RB Duke Catalon can step in and be effective immediately.

While SMU won’t challenge for the division title, we’re thinking the Mustangs could make a run at respectability in the West. A bowl is probably out of the question, however, given non-conference games vs. Baylor and TCU. Though a 4-4 run through the AAC could get SMU to 6-6.

CONFERENCE USA

East
1. Marshall
2. Middle Tennessee State
3. Western Kentucky
4. Old Dominion
5. Florida Atlantic
6. Florida International
7. Charlotte

Marshall gets the nod in the East because of the schedule; it hosts both Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky. With quarterback Chase Litton back along with just four defensive starters, the recipe for success should be familiar. Lots of offense and a defense good enough to win in Conference-USA.

Former South Florida quarterback Mike White replaces Brandon Doughty as WKU’s starting quarterback while MTSU returns Brent Stockstill. The Oct. 15 matchup between the two (at MTSU) may determine which team is Marshall’s strongest challenger in the division.

West
1. Southern Miss
2. Rice
3. Louisiana Tech
4. UTEP
5. UTSA
6. North Texas

We’re playing the quarterback theory in the West too. Southern Miss won the division in 2015 and returns QB Nick Mullens, who should be the best QB in the conference. Running back Ito Smith — named for Judge Lance Ito from the O.J. Simpson trial — is back too. Smith was one of two 1,000 yard rushers for Southern Miss in 2015 and should top his 1,128 yard campaign of a year ago.

Rice was 5-7 a year ago and returns nearly every key player from its defense. The Owls had just 16 sacks (down from 39 in 2014) and will need to double that number to have a chance in the division.

MAC

East
1. Bowling Green
2. Akron
3. Ohio
4. Kent State
5. Buffalo
6. Miami (OH)

Bowling Green has to replace its quarterback, leading rusher and two leading receivers. Oh, the Falcons have a new coach too. We still like Bowling Green in the division, however, as its top three tacklers are back for 2016 and new head coach Mike Jinks should largely keep the offensive system intact. Akron and Ohio will be in a tight battle for second and the game between the two Nov. 22 will likely determine who is higher in the standings.

If you’re looking for a surprise team in the MAC, Kent State isn’t a terrible pick. The Golden Flashes have 10 starters back on offense and eight back on a defense that improved significantly from 2014.

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West
1. Western Michigan
2. Northern Illinois
3. Toledo
4. Central Michigan
5. Ball State
6. Eastern Michigan

Row the damn boat to the MAC title game, Western Michigan. We’ll know pretty early about the Broncos’ conference prospects; the team opens conference play with games against Central Michigan and Northern Illinois. WMU had three running backs (Jamauri Bogan, Jarvion Franklin and LeVante Bellamy) rush for over 500 yards in 2015 and they all return for 2016. So does QB Zach Terrell, who threw for 29 touchdowns and just nine interceptions a year ago. Don’t be stunned if the Broncos upset Northwestern or Illinois in the first three weeks of the season.

MOUNTAIN WEST

Mountain
1. Boise State
2. Utah State
3. Air Force
4. Colorado State
5. New Mexico
6. Wyoming

Is Boise State the favorite among Group of Five teams to make the New Year’s Six bowls? Houston opens the season vs. Oklahoma while Boise State’s two toughest non-conference games are vs. Washington State and Oregon State. If Houston loses to an as-expected CFP contender Oklahoma and Boise slips up vs. either of the Pac-12 schools, the losses could be weighed against each other if the teams have identical records.

If the Broncos want to be in that conversation, the defensive line will have to reload. All four starters from last year’s line are gone including DE Kamalei Correa, who led the team with seven sacks. S Darian Thompson, who had 7.5 tackles for loss and was the second-leading tackler on the team, is off to the NFL. Boise’s offense should be just fine with QB Brett Rypien, RB Jeremy McNichols and WR Thomas Sperbeck.

Air Force QB Nate Romine returns for his junior season after missing most of 2015 with a torn ACL. Leading rusher RB Jacobi Owens is also back while Utah State has to replace eight starters on defense. The race for second should be close, and we’re giving it to USU simply because it hosts the Falcons on Sep. 24.

West
1. San Diego State
2. Nevada
3. San Jose State
4. Fresno State
5. UNLV
6. Hawaii

San Diego State boasts the league’s best rushing attack with Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny. Both running backs should top 1,000 yards as Christian Chapman takes over at quarterback. He’s got the Aztecs’ three leading receivers back from last year and if San Diego State continues its four-year trend of lowering its opponents’ completion percentage, San Diego State matches up very well with Boise State for the honors of best team in the conference.

But San Diego State isn’t far and away the best team in the division. Both Nevada and San Jose State return 15 starters. We give the edge to the Wolfpack because SJS has to replace RB Tyler Ervin, who accounted for nearly 2,000 combined rushing and receiving yards a year ago.

SUN BELT

1. Appalachian State
2. Arkansas State
3. Louisiana-Lafayette
4. Georgia Southern
5. Georgia State
6. South Alabama
7. Troy
8. Idaho
9. Louisiana-Monroe
10. New Mexico State
11. Texas State

The race at the top of the Sun Belt should be fun. Appalachian State quarterback Taylor Lamb may be the best in the conference while Arkansas State starts Pitt transfer Chad Voytik and LSU transfer Anthony Jennings will start for Louisiana-Lafayette. Oh, and don’t forget Georgia Southern’s Favian Upshaw and Kevin Ellison either. Upshaw averaged over 7 yards per carry last year while Ellison topped six.

We’re going with App State because of its experienced defense. The Mountaineers will likely start seven seniors on defense including LB John Law, who had four sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss last year. The only defensive question mark should revolve around replacing the production of DE Ronald Blair, who had 7.5 sacks and 11.5 TFL in 2015.

There’s a big gulf in the middle of the conference, however. Outside of the top four teams, we have a hard time seeing anyone outside of Georgia State have a chance at a surprise run.

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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
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