NCAA Hockey 101: North Dakota barely taking care of business

Anecdotally, the very best teams in any sport say they have a tough time because any time they play anyone, they get that opponent’s A-plus game. Very few teams will go into such a contest anything less than hyped up and ready to go.

It is therefore understandable why a team like North Dakota would want to schedule soft opening opponents. Ease yourself into the season, collect some crucial W’s, and see where you stand before the actual tough competition ratchets up.

That seems to have been North Dakota’s plan for this year.

Much of the Fighting Hawks schedule was undoubtedly set long before they won the national title last spring, and you can only play the teams in front of you. But while North Dakota is 5-0, and haven’t left the greater Grand Forks area yet this season, you have to say that it’s tough to determine how good this team actually is.

Many other top-level teams have had something resembling measuring-stick games. The Nos. 2 and 5 teams in the country right now (Minnesota-Duluth and UMass Lowell) played each other two weeks ago. Duluth also played No. 7 Notre Dame the next week. No. 4 Boston University already traveled to Denver last week then beat No. 6 Quinnipiac on Saturday night.

But who has North Dakota played? Canisius for two, RPI for one, and most recently Bemidji State for two. All five were at home. And they whaled on those opponents to the tune of a plus-12 goal differential and 65 percent possession number at 5-on-5. But frankly, that’s what North Dakota should do to programs of that quality.

Yes, we’re supposed to pretend high-level WCHA teams are or ought to be good enough to be competitive with high-level teams from Hockey East or the NCHC, but the fact is they aren’t and can’t be, so Bemidji’s current No. 20 ranking feels a little illegitimate; they can suffocate teams worse than them in-conference, but if they were in the NCHC or Hockey East they’d finish in the bottom third every year.

Nonetheless, the Beavers did put a bit of a scare into North Dakota this weekend, both nights losing by just a single goal. No surprise here, but they got badly outshot both nights and nearly 1 in every 3 shots they attempted over the course of both games in Saturday’s third period alone, when they were already down four goals.

On Friday it was a slightly different story, as Brock Boeser — one of the nation’s foremost talents, who already has 12 points in five games — basically decided to take over. Bemidji scored twice in the first 9:19 of the game, so Boeser scored on a 5-on-3, again at 5-on-5, and then once more on a penalty shot in the final 25:09 of the game to assure the win. Obviously they would have liked things to go a little more smoothly; you shouldn’t need a late, ref-assisted comeback to beat Bemidji at home, and you shouldn’t almost cough up a four-goal lead. At least, not if you’re North Dakota or any other elite team in the nation. But one supposes you can’t argue with the results they’ve gotten so far.

So yeah, they’re the unanimous top-ranked team in the country, with all 50 of the votes in this week’s poll. But honestly, what can we say with any confidence about this North Dakota team? That they seem to score at will against teams that would all rank comfortably in the bottom 35 in the nation? That Boeser is still good even without Nick Schmaltz and Drake Caggiula? That they’re the one of just four undefeated teams remaining in the country because they’ve played nothing but cupcakes? Hell, even Ohio State has played a tougher schedule.

The impulse to rank an undefeated national champion with a huge goal differential this high is obviously understandable. They’ve given you little (or at least little enough) reason to think they’re anything besides what you thought they would be.

There is, however, reason to be concerned if you really look for it: Their power play is just 4 of 26 (16.7 percent), and that’s supposed to be a big weapon for a team with that much skill. By contrast, highly skilled BU’s power play currently runs at 6 of 31, and most would say it’s been a bit disappointing so far this year.

In addition, North Dakota has also given up more power plays to these unskilled opponents than it has drawn, and its overall special teams net is so far a plus-1. You’d like those statistics to be a lot more favorable against bad teams given that they’re now transitioning into a tougher portion of the schedule.

But here’s the biggest cause for concern so far in this young season: Those no-skill teams they’ve beat up on? It hasn’t been because their goaltending has been any good.

The opposite is true. Cam Johnson, who was so crucial to the Fighting Hawks’ success last year, is 5-0 despite the fact that his save percentage currently sits at .899. And the thing is North Dakota has spent massive portions of its games so far this season out in front of its opponents, and when teams are trailing — especially when they’re trailing by multiple goals — the general quality of their shots actually decreases. Their shot volume goes up, sure, but the shooting percentages tend to decline.

And what’s really worrisome is that Johnson started the year allowing one goal on 27 shots over two games in those glorified scrimmages against Canisius. Since then, he’s sitting on an .869 save percentage against RPI and Bemidji State. That’s eight goals allowed on just 51 shots, and it’s flat-out not good enough. Last year he went .935 across 35 games, and for his college career he’s .928. But he was only .915 in his career in the USHL, and it’s not all that common to see goalies tack that many points onto their save percentages when they move up to the next level.

Point being it’s entirely possible Johnson isn’t nearly as capable as he showed last year; anyone can get hot for 30-35 games. (However, he is certainly not as bad as he’s been to start the year.) It’s also possible that North Dakota’s systems should add 20 or so points more to his career numbers, but that’s less likely.

So here’s the real test: After acquitting themselves well enough against teams from inferior conferences, what can they do in Duluth next weekend, at Minnesota the next, and hosting Denver the one after that? If current data is any indication, things won’t go quite so smoothly.

So much went right that even putrid goaltending couldn’t sink them. Figure out what’s wrong with Johnson and you get your whole team on track again. Which is where a team as good as North Dakota should be. And that’s not to say they aren’t. But things have been iffier than they’d like.

But hey, you play the schedule. And if you go 5-0 and look only-okay doing it, at least you’re still 5-0.

A somewhat arbitrary ranking of teams which are pretty good in my opinion only (and just for right now but maybe for a little longer too?)

1. North Dakota (beat RPI)

2. Minnesota Duluth (split with Notre Dame)

3. UMass Lowell (swept at Colorado College)

4. Notre Dame (split at Minnesota Duluth)

5. Boston University (got swept at Denver)

6. Denver (swept BU)

7. Quinnipiac (split at Maine)

8. Minnesota (beat the US U-18 team)

9. Boston College (split at Wisconsin)

10. Michigan (beat Ferris State)

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist and also covers the NCAA for College Hockey News. His email is here and his Twitter is here.