Survival Pool Advice: It's now or never for Washington

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Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 3’s biggest killer: Arizona Cardinals losing to Buffalo Bills (11.75 percent)
Week 3’s biggest winner: Miami Dolphins beating Cleveland Browns (47.4 percent)
Total Week 3 eliminations: 23.42 percent of remaining entries
Perfect entries remaining on Yahoo: 142,480
My picks: Week 1 — Seattle (W) Week 2 — Detroit (L) Week 3 — Miami (W)

Have 47.4 percent of you already addressed your thank you note to Cody Parkey?

Me? I’ve already sent the wildly inaccurate Cleveland Browns kicker a fruit basket, an assortment of flowers and a gift subscription to cheese of the month. Were it not for Parkey’s three missed field goals — none longer than 46 yards — almost half of the entries in Yahoo survival pools would’ve been shown the door after Sunday’s game with the Dolphins.

Yet we all lived to see another day thanks to Cleveland’s ineptitude.

Safe play — Washington Redskins over Cleveland
The Browns’ opponents have all received heavy play over the first four weeks of survival pool. The Dolphins were the most frequent pick in Week 3 and the Redskins are the most common pick heading into week 4. (Around a third of Yahoo users picked Washington as of Wednesday afternoon.) That percentage will probably be even higher in Week 5 when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots roll into Cleveland, even though it’s a road game for New England.

Something about this week’s Browns game gives me the wrong feeling though. Yes, this is the last chance you’ll probably get to pick Washington. The rest of their home schedule is murderous and filled with playoff contenders— Philadelphia, Minnesota, Green Bay, Carolina and the New York Giants. If you’re not picking them at home against Cleveland, you’re not picking them against anyone.

But even though Washington is coming off a big road win against the Giants, I can’t bring myself to pick them. Yes, the Redskins are 7.5 point favorites, but Numberfire only puts their chances of winning at 62.5 percent. I know you’ve got to gamble in this game to reach the end, but I like my odds of winning solidly in the 70s. If you reached the end of a 17-week season, that means you still didn’t have to pick 15 teams. I’m OK with casting Washington to my pile of unpickables. Let the rest of the herd run into the possible danger that Hue Jackson and Terrelle Pryor might bring Washington.

Sneaky play — Cincinnati Bengals over Dolphins
I’m not a huge fan of picking Thursday games, but I like this one for those of you who were smart enough to log on and make a pick before Sunday morning. Not only are the Dolphins playing terrible football, but it’s a short week and Miami has to go on the road. Throw in a Bengals squad that’s motivated to move past a 1-2 start and is getting Vontaze Burfict back for its defense and I think you’ll be able to rest easy on Thursday night as well as all weekend. Cincinnati is 19-5-1 at home since the start of 2013 and Numberfire lists the Bengals with a 77.2 percent chance of winning this one. Pick with confidence.

If you picked late? Well, you’re probably stuck with considering that Houston Texans over Tennessee Titans game. The Texans just suffered a big loss with JJ Watt’s injury and the Texans’ rush defense wasn’t that great WITH him. The Titans have played solidly in all three games, even winning on the road in Detroit, so riding with Houston makes me nervous. There are other opportunities to pick the Texans, but the next best one won’t come until Week 15, when Jacksonville comes to town.

Stay Away — Cardinals over Los Angeles Rams
Arizona still gets the Jets, 49ers, Redskins and Saints at home. Let Bruce Arians figure out what’s going on with his 1-2 squad while you bank Arizona’s future value.

My Week 4 pick: Bengals over Dolphins

Who are you picking? Let us know in the comments below!