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NFL trade chatter heating up, but don't count on any major deals happening
Our advice is to not hold your breath very long.
Every year, there are a few puffs of interesting smoke at the NFL trade deadline, and most times those potential fire sales are stamped out rather quickly. Remember the names that were floating around one year ago? Joe Thomas, Matt Forte, Eric Weddle, Alex Mack, Jared Cook, Willie Young and maybe half a dozen names were bandied about as being potentially available for trade.
None were moved. We instead were treated to the blockbuster of Vernon Davis to the Denver Broncos. It’s a deal that didn’t hurt the team that eventually won the Super Bowl, but Davis caught 20 passes for 201 yards and no touchdowns in nine games for the Broncos, so it was a pretty good reminder that trades are rather uncommon for a reason this time of year.
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The New England Patriots made a minor deal on Tuesday, landing linebacker Kyle Van Noy from the Detroit Lions in a swap of late-round draft picks in 2017. Don’t be shocked if this ends up being one of the few trades of note before the Nov. 1 deadline.
There are few instant fixes, and getting deals done now is tough — for contract reasons, for chemistry issues and for the fact that teams hate giving up future assets for a player who may or may not help them immediately.
So when you hear the names of Thomas (again), Joe Staley, Torrey Smith, Alshon Jeffery or the line, our advice is this: assume something won’t happen before you assume it will.
Smith’s name has come up multiple times, and a team willing to take on his salary (three more years at $6.5 million per season, plus bonuses of $3 million per) might be able to make this deal happen. The Philadelphia Eagles could be one of those teams, as they’re desperate to find playmakers on the outside to help out Carson Wentz, and it’s not like the San Francisco 49ers are either using Smith well or going to be successful soon.
(On that note, check out what one clever/frustrated 49ers fan did to GM Trent Baalke’s Wikipedia page.)
But you take Thomas, for instance, and wonder why the Cleveland Browns would let him go for the price of a second-round pick? Sure, he’s closer to the end of his career at this point than the beginning. But with NFL teams — including a lot of contenders — seemingly desperate for quality offensive lineman, one would think the price might be higher for a player under contract the next three seasons as only the seventh-highest paid tackle in the NFL who is among the most consistent at the position.
Browns head coach Hue Jackson quashed the Thomas rumors: “We are not going to trade Joe Thomas,” Jackson said bluntly, although who cares if he’s not telling the truth? This is a league full of posturing and deceit — it’s just business and liar’s poker. That’s all part of the game.
Could the 49ers also look into a Staley deal? Sure — his name was floated a year ago, too. Chip Kelly’s statement on Staley was softer than Jackson’s on Thomas: “That’s news to me,” Kelly told reporters. “Nobody’s had any discussions with me about Joe being traded. We need Joe here.” But again, it doesn’t matter. If the 49ers get the right offer from any number of OL-needy teams, he gladly will shrug and eat his words, we assume.
So it’s less about teams unwilling to make deals and more about supply meeting demand and consumers willing to pay the asking price. Perhaps there’s a little more desperation if you’re, say, the Minnesota Vikings and you watched your O-line get worked over time and time again on Sunday. But on the flip side, the Vikings are right up against the cap and likely can’t make anything close to a major deal. That’s a pretty prohibitive restriction right there.
The Chicago Bears are an interesting study. The name of Jeffery hasn’t come out much, although there are a few whispers he might be available for the right price. It’s possible. But the Bears are in a tough spot with Jay Cutler returning to the lineup and few other playmakers who can catch passes. If the Bears intend to let Jeffery walk next year, they definitely should see what they can get for him now. But then there’s the matter of the team trading for the impending free agent — they have to feel they can sign him to an extension, otherwise the price they offer would be extremely low.
This is why trades involving players in the NFL are tricky and less common than in the other sports. Especially around this time of year. And it’s why assuming that blockbuster to put a team over the proverbial top is a fool’s errand.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
