Wide Receiver Shuffle Up: The unstoppable Antonio Brown

I’m fully on the “receivers early and often” bus this year, so this Shuffle Up might be the most important one we do. This is a position we need to get right.

Usual Shuffle Up disclaimers apply. The prices are unscientific and just a way to compare the players. When players are at the same price, it means they are considered even. I do not compare prices with other shuffles (or compare prices between different positions), and I do every shuffle from scratch. Season to taste, and your own particular league rules and parameters. I assumed a half-point PPR system, in theory, as I composed these.

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Just prices for now. Tiers and comments will follow later Monday.

Tier 1
$51 Antonio Brown
$48 Odell Beckham Jr.
$46 Julio Jones

I’d take Brown first, automatically, in any format, even non-PPR pools or groups that include a Superflex (and I love that format). He moves too well laterally for defenses to scheme him out of games, and he has a ridiculous mind-meld with Ben Roethlisberger. Beckham’s touchdown upside gets the No. 2 nod over Jones, though these guys are the overall 1-2-3 on all of my clipboards to this point. I want a monster WR base with those primary picks.

Tier 2
$42 A.J. Green
$41 DeAndre Hopkins
$40 Allen Robinson
$36 Keenan Allen
$34 Brandin Cooks
$33 Brandon Marshall
$32 T.Y. Hilton
$32 Alshon Jeffery
$32 Mike Evans
$31 Amari Cooper

Green should get a target spike with so many key players leaving town, not to mention the uncertain status of Tyler Eifert . . . We don’t know how good Brock Osweiler is, but I can’t see how he’d be worse than the clown college Houston had at QB last year. Hopkins is a very safe pick in the middle of the first round, floor and upside at the same time. His target rate will probably be smoother than last year — early spike, later dip — but I’d be shocked if he turned into a pick people regretted . . . Marshall’s made a career of staying on the field despite physical play, and producing despite ordinary quarterback play. I have no problem paying up for him even at this stage of his career . . . You want to be careful with the assumption of logical coaching, but Cooper’s red-zone usage from last year strikes me as a monumental fluke. He’s too smart, too talented, and too dedicated to his craft for this to continue. And Year is a common spot for a receiver spike (even if Oakland’s game flow this year results in less passing opportunities overall).

Tier 3
$30 Sammy Watkins
$29 Jordy Nelson
$29 Dez Bryant
$27 Jarvis Landry
$26 Demaryius Thomas
$25 Jeremy Maclin
$25 Doug Baldwin
$25 Donte Moncrief
$24 Randall Cobb
$24 Eric Decker
$22 Golden Tate
$21 Michael Floyd

The Watkins foot recovery pushed him out of the second round for me, but if I like the early floor picks, I’ll be happy to toss the dice on him in the third . . . Landry is a high-floor player who’s probably a good bet for positive-touchdown regression, even if he’s unlikely to score 10 in any season. And the summer development of Parker hasn’t initially taken off as expected . . . I’ve spent most of the summer giving you my Baldwin take, both on Twitter and on blog. He’s a perfect target in the fourth round of most leagues . . . Decker and Marshall were remarkably consistent last year, and while the Jets have added the pass-catching Matt Forte to the mix, the team is still lacking for WR and TE depth. A skinny usage tree is a beautiful thing . . . I’m cutting Moncrief a big piece of slack for last year’s ugly efficiency, accepting that Andrew Luck was rarely healthy and Matt Hasselbeck shouldn’t have been playing. Indianapolis is another team with a small collection of usable targets; their main players are likely to soak up a ton of targets.

Tier 4
$19 Jordan Matthews
$18 Tyler Lockett
$18 Kelvin Benjamin
$17 Emmanuel Sanders
$17 Marvin Jones
$17 Larry Fitzgerald
$17 Allen Hurns
$17 Julian Edelman
$16 Stefon Diggs
$15 Vincent Jackson
$15 John Brown
$14 DeSean Jackson
$14 Josh Gordon

Lockett’s been a fun guy to collect in the Best Ball pre-draft season, but his hits will be a lot trickier to decipher in standard formats, where setting a lineup is still a thing. And be well aware, Lockett looks like Seattle’s No. 3 receiver as the season opens . . . Diggs has been a marvel in Minnesota’s camp, making it clear who their No. 1 receiver is. Meanwhile, Laquon Treadwell will probably be the No. 4 man on opening day, and might not have any redraft value in 2016 . . . Edelman’s played one full season out of seven and isn’t a dynamic touchdown scorer, so I tend to like him less than most do . . . If not for the headache issue, I’d have Brown up a few bucks . . . Hurns doesn’t need to fully match 2015’s haul to justify his current draft cost. If he can come close to the average of 2014 and 2015, I’ll be happy. He’s been underrated his entire career.

Tier 5
$12 Michael Crabtree
$11 Travis Benjamin
$11 Tavon Austin
$11 Devante Parker
$10 Corey Coleman
$10 Kamar Aiken
$10 Willie Snead
$9 Phillip Dorsett
$8 Devin Funchess
$8 Sterling Shepard
$8 Mohamed Sanu

I see Cooper as a major ascending player and TE Clive Walford as a guy on the move as well, and it’s despite the Raiders probably looking at less pass attempts this year. Who pays the tax? On my clipboard, it’s Crabtree . . . Benjamin is a poor man’s DeSean Jackson, a field stretcher who is an excellent bet to have a handful of blow-up games, but can we get to them ahead of time? . . . Given the extensive hype Shepard’s generated this summer, he’s done very little tangible on the field. I’m okay to take him reactively in drafts, but not proactively . . . Sanu isn’t a game-changer but he has a very safe floor, given what little the Falcons have to throw to after Julio Jones . . . I don’t mind drafting Funchess as a possible breakout player, but for part of the summer, his price has pushed into the expectant area.

Tier 6
$7 Tajae Sharpe
$6 Torrey Smith
$6 Will Fuller
$6 Markus Wheaton
$5 Rishard Matthews
$5 Kevin White
$5 Mike Wallace
$4 Bruce Ellington
$4 Tyler Boyd
$4 Anquan Boldin
$4 Michael Thomas

I’d like Sharp and Matthews more on a different team, but they have to deal with Delanie Walker’s bank of targets and a couple of backs who will be fed regularly . . . I’m going to be late to White and Perriman as do-over rookies; if they pop immediately, good for them. I’m not going to price it in immediately . . . I liked Torrey Smith a lot more a month ago, but he’s still a limited-route option, and toiling in an offense that lacks for a deep thrower. Chip Kelly’s been awfully good to his No. 1 targets through the years, but we’re comparing apples and oranges here.

Tier 7
$3 Eli Rogers
$2 Sammie Coates
$2 Terrance Williams
$2 Steve Smith
$2 Ted Ginn
$2 Chris Hogan
$2 Kenny Britt
$2 Dorial Green-Beckham
$1 Kendall Wright
$1 Breshad Perriman
$1 Pierre Garcon
$1 Brandon LaFell
$1 Robert Woods
$1 Nelson Agholor
$1 Jamison Crowder
$1 Seth Roberts
$1 Darrius Heyward-Bey
$1 Adam Thielen
$0 Laquon Treadwell
$0 Josh Doctson